The article analyzes Ukraine’s ability to acquire a new geopolitical status in Europe during the period of post-war development. Taking into account the dynamics and duration of the Ukrainian-Russian war, the analysis was carried out in the mid-term perspective and taking into consideration international and geopolitical assessments. By means of comparative method it was possible to reveal differences between positions of participants’ parties and countries-partners of Ukraine, which mobilized military and Geo-economic efforts on changing the paradigm of goal of war ending on reconciliation of the aggressor on its maximal weakening. Also, the scenarios of both the development of the war and the proposals for its completion were compared, in particular, the “Italian peace plan”, and the proposals by G. Kissinger and think-tanks of the USA and Ukraine. The results provided an opportunity to collect data in defining three possible geopolitical statuses of Ukraine in Europe: the status of the geopolitical mediator between the West and Russia (the most desirable for the European situation), the status of the geopolitical regional leader (the most favorable for Ukraine and the most integrated into the EU and NATO structures), the status of the “military periphery” (suits partner countries and Ukraine, but reduces the dynamics of the country’s development).

SWOT-analysis of Ukraine’s future geopolitical statuses in Europe proved that the Ukrainian-Russian war has finally determined and strengthened the ability of Ukraine to realize its international subjectivity independently, but the realization of the desired and embodied status on a regional scale will depend on such indicators as the preservation of the international anti-war coalition, its own political stability with democratic progress, strengthening of the military power, obtaining real security guarantees, maintaining territorial integrity.

Keywords:military periphery; geopolitical status; regional leader; regional security; Ukrainian-Russian war.

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Alla Mishchenko 07.11.2022


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